Democracy and justice hang by a thread in Guatemala

The following letter to the editor was published in The Hill Times on January 2, 2024.

Guatemala stands at the crossroads between the recovery of a faltering democracy or the complete cooptation of the State by political and economic forces linked to organized crime. The international community’s response to this crisis – and that of Canada – could not be more important.

Since the surprise landslide presidential election victory of anti-corruption campaigner Bernardo Arévalo on August 20, the so-called “pact of the corrupt” that controls most of the Guatemalan State has sought to overturn the results. The inauguration of the new administration and Congress is supposed to occur on January 14 but whether they will be allowed to assume office remains in doubt.

In the months following Arevalo’s victory, different branches of the Guatemalan State, including the executive, much of the legislature, the Supreme and Constitutional Courts, and the Attorney General’s office - all deeply compromised with organized crime - have taken extraordinary measures to prevent the President-elect from taking office, including a suspension order against the party that won at the ballot box, Arévalo’s Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement). Party supporters have been arrested, and magistrates of the Electoral Tribunal also threatened with prosecution. Add to that efforts to remove the legal immunity of both the president-elect and vice president-elect, as well as Semilla congressional representatives in order to prosecute them on trumped up charges, such as expressing support on social media for student pro-democracy protests. Already, other anti-corruption advocates and officials have been charged and imprisoned, or forced into exile, amid a disturbing perversion of justice in Guatemala.

In response, tens of thousands of Guatemalans, guided by Indigenous Mayan ancestral authorities, have taken to the streets to defend the democratic process and the rule of law. Huge non-violent demonstrations paralysed transport and commerce for much of October and November. Yet Congress and the Attorney General’s office only deepened their assault, forcing most of the judges of the Electoral Tribunal to leave the country and demanding that the Supreme Court annul the elections. Ancestral authorities have faced reprisals, including assassinations, threats, and criminalization.

On December 8, the Organization of American States (OAS) General Secretariat condemned what it called “the attempted coup d'état by the Public Prosecutor's Office of Guatemala”, through the cancellation of general elections, which “constitutes the worst form of democratic breakdown and the consolidation of a political fraud against the will of the people”. France has “strongly condemn[ed] attempts to challenge the results of Guatemala’s general elections” calling them “a grave threat to the transition process, the rule of law and democracy in Guatemala” .

Canada has played a positive role to date. On December 10, Canada’s Ambassador to Guatemala, Rajani Alexander, joined the ambassadors of Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden and Switzerland, and the chargé d'affaires of the United States to call publicly for full compliance with the results of the national elections. Canada’s Ambassador at the Organization of American States, Stuart Savage, has supported strong multilateral measures to pressure Guatemalan authorities to respect the election results. These are important steps. Given the high stakes, Canada must do more.

The days leading up to the January 14 presidential inauguration are crucial for the future of Guatemala. If Arévalo can take office, he will do so with an overwhelming mandate to roll back corruption and recover the democratic institutions that have been so badly eroded during the past five years. But if the slow coup that is currently underway is allowed to succeed and Arévalo is prevented from taking office, it will be the final blow to the democratic reconstruction that has been so painstakingly built by courageous Guatemalans, with international support, following 36 years of armed conflict.

Canada, and our allies, must make it unambiguously clear that after January 14, they will recognize no other government in Guatemala than that of President Bernardo Arevalo. The consequences that will unfold should democracy be subverted must also be crystal clear: suspension of bilateral aid, freezing Guatemalan State assets held abroad, and opposing further financial assistance from multilateral lending institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. 

The uneasy alliance involved in the slow coup is already beginning to fray in the face of massive, ongoing resistance by the Guatemalan people and growing pressure from the international community. If the international consequences of the democratic rupture are spelled out, it may be enough to tip the balance in favour of democracy and hope.

Authors

Marie-Dominik Langlois is a board member of the Committee for Human Rights in Latin America (CDHAL) based in Montreal and has been involved with solidarity organizations with Latin America for over 20 years. She is finishing a PhD in sociology at the University of Ottawa on Indigenous mobilizations in Guatemala.

Steve Stewart is the coordinator of BC CASA-Cafe Justicia based in Vancouver. He worked as a journalist in Guatemala for the Cerigua News Agency during the armed conflict and has been involved in human rights and development projects in the country since 1989. 

They are representatives of the Americas Policy Group (APG), a network of over 25 Canadian civil-society organizations supporting human rights and social justice in Latin America.